Modeling controversies in the press: the case of the abnormal bees' death

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Alexandre Delanoë, Serge Galam

(Submitted on 10 Sep 2012)

The controversy about the cause(s) of abnormal death of bee colonies in France is investigated through an extensive analysis of the french speaking press. A statistical analysis of textual data is first performed on the lexicon used by journalists to describe the facts and to present associated informations during the period 1998-2010. Three states are identified to explain the phenomenon. The first state asserts a unique cause, the second one focuses on multifactor causes and the third one states the absence of current proof. Assigning each article to one of the three states, we are able to follow the associated opinion dynamics among the journalists over 13 years. Then, we apply the Galam sequential probabilistic model of opinion dynamic to those data. Assuming journalists are either open mind or inflexible about their respective opinions, the results are reproduced precisely provided we account for a series of annual changes in the proportions of respective inflexibles. The results shed a new counter intuitive light on the various pressure supposed to apply on the journalists by either chemical industries or beekeepers and experts or politicians. The obtained dynamics of respective inflexibles shows the possible effect of lobbying, the inertia of the debate and the net advantage gained by the first whistleblowers.

Comments:	22 pages, 9 figures
Subjects:	Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph); Computation and Language (cs.CL)
Cite as:	arXiv:1209.2163 [physics.soc-ph]
	(or arXiv:1209.2163v1 [physics.soc-ph] for this version)